Senate Race Has Sociable Start

(Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star)

By Chelyen Davis
 
RICHMOND--The friendly tone in an exchange of letters last week between Democrat Albert Pollard and Republican Richard Stuart--the two candidates for the 28th District state Senate seat--was unusual for a race that will be one the state's most watched this fall.
 
Both men proposed a series of debates--generally a contentious issue--in sincerely worded letters devoid of sarcasm.
 
That may be a harbinger of the race that is to come, with two candidates who are similar in ideology, come from the same region and travel in the same circles.
 
Pollard, who spent two terms as the delegate from the 99th District in the Northern Neck, is the only Democratic candidate for the seat, and thus avoided a primary.
 
Stuart just won a four-way contest for the Republican nomination.
 
Between now and November, they'll be locked in a fight that will have political junkies across the state watching.
 
Democrats hope to pick up enough seats to take control of the Senate in this year's elections, but to do so they'll need to win the 28th District.
 
Republicans, of course, want to keep the 28th for themselves. It's a marquee race in a year when all 140 legislative seats are on the ballot, a "must-win seat" if Democrats want to take over the Senate, according to University of Mary Washington political analyst Stephen Farnsworth.
 
"The Republican voters [in the 28th District] selected a candidate who will be more competitive than some of the choices they had," Farnsworth said. "This district is at significant risk of changing hands in this election cycle, and if the Republicans had nominated a far-right candidate it might have ensured the election of a Democrat."
 
But Stuart was the most moderate of the Republican candidates.
 
He refuses to make a no-tax pledge and he says social issues aren't his top priority. Pollard is no liberal either; he has run, and won, as a conservative Democrat, one who sometimes voted for abortion restrictions and who made matters of the environment and education his top priorities.
 
Stuart even once donated money to a Pollard campaign. Philosophically, the two are not at opposite ends of the spectrum.
 
"If the nominee weren't Pollard, the Democrats would almost certainly lose the district. Pollard is the one Democrat who I think can be competitive in that district," Farnsworth said. "And among the Republican possibilities, Stuart probably has the best chances among the Republicans. That's why I think this is a Senate race of statewide impact."
 
Each man thinks he has an advantage.
 
Pollard already is well-known in the Northern Neck, from his time as a delegate there, which he thinks gives him a leg up. Stuart thinks they're evenly matched in the Northern Neck and that Stafford --which holds more voters than the Northern Neck--leans Republican, so he feels he's ahead there.
 
Farnsworth agrees that the race is going to boil down to Stafford .
 
"Where they're not known is where the campaign has to be waged more aggressively," he said. "There are a lot of people in Stafford County who, because he didn't represent Stafford County , wouldn't particularly know Pollard and wouldn't particularly have an opinion about Stuart."
 
For Pollard, the challenge is going to be to beat a Republican in a district that does lean Republican--and one who has the support of the 30-year incumbent, Sen. John Chichester.
 
For Stuart, the challenge will be overcoming Pollard's name recognition and uniting a fractious Republican Party.
 
"If the Republican Party is going to win this seat, they're going to have to come together in a way they never did when Chichester was the nominee," Farnsworth said.
 
Chichester's fiscal beliefs, which involved pushing for tax increases when he felt it was necessary to pay for state services, have divided Republicans in his own district for years. The anti-tax conservatives have long wanted to get rid of him, but the candidate they put up against him four years ago lost the primary in a landslide. Chichester may be retiring, but the divisions between the factions of his party are not.
 
"The big danger for the Republicans is that the grudge match of the Chichester years doesn't get resolved in this election," Farnsworth said.
 
"If the sniping that exists in May continues in September, it's going to be hard for the Republicans to keep the seat. If conservative Republicans sit on their hands, Democrats win."
 
Stuart thinks he can do it. He says he has talked to two of his three former Republican opponents, who are backing him and helping him.
 
"I intend to work very hard and fight for this seat. Ultimately this race is going to be decided in Stafford ," Stuart said. "It leans Republican and I've already been working on Stafford , and fortunately my opponents are joining me in this fight and they're going to help me. We've discussed it and already have a lot of plans for a good campaign."
 
Pollard says he's not worried about Stuart's having Chichester's help, and he thinks he'll come out on top.
 
"I proved my mettle in Richmond by being feisty for my district, and ultimately that's why I think I'm going to win the hearts and minds of voters in this district," Pollard said.
 
Voters in the 28th will likely get plenty of chances to choose between the two men; in those letters about a debate schedule, both Pollard and Stuart propose a series of debates in various locations around the district. They haven't worked out dates or details yet.

Powered by Orchid Suites
Orchid ver. 4.7.5.